MOGADISHU, Somalia – A new briefing from the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), titled “Dawn or Doom? The New AU Mission in Somalia and the Fight for Stability,” examines the high-stakes security transition in Somalia as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) prepares to hand over responsibilities to its successor, the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
With a pivotal decision expected by May 2025, the report underscores the urgent need to prevent a security vacuum. “Somalia and its international partners must prioritize one essential task: ensuring stability during this delicate transition,” the EUISS warns.
The success of the handover hinges on securing sustainable funding for AUSSOM, as ATMIS forces are scheduled to complete their troop realignment by June 30, 2025.
The briefing highlights that without robust financial backing, AUSSOM’s capacity to combat Al-Shabaab and maintain security will be severely weakened.
“AUSSOM’s ability to function effectively depends on adequate financing—failure to secure it risks unraveling Somalia’s hard-won gains,” the report states. Current funding uncertainties threaten to destabilize the country just as it approaches a critical juncture.
The EUISS also cautions against overreliance on bilateral military support, which could sideline Somali governance. “While external security assistance can help bridge the gap between AU missions, it must not come at the cost of undermining Somalia’s sovereignty,” the report emphasizes.
Instead, it calls for a unified international approach to strengthen Somalia’s security forces, rather than fragmented interventions that could exacerbate instability.
Multilateral cooperation is framed as the cornerstone of lasting stability. The report warns that any deviation from this approach risks reigniting conflict, to the advantage of extremist groups.
“A coordinated effort—backing AUSSOM and bolstering Somalia’s security forces—is non-negotiable. The alternative is a return to widespread violence, benefiting no one but armed insurgents.”
To ensure AUSSOM’s viability, the EUISS urges the European Union to take a leading role in rallying financial support. It recommends that EU policymakers push for sustainable funding, whether through UN-assessed contributions or alternative mechanisms like a dedicated trust fund.
“The EU must champion multilateral solutions and galvanize broader international backing—without delay,” the report concludes. As the May 2025 decision deadline looms, the EUISS briefing serves as a stark reminder: the international community must act now to secure Somalia’s fragile stability. Failure to address these challenges could undo years of progress, leaving the country vulnerable to renewed conflict.
