Mogadishu, Somalia — Most Somalis support moving toward one-person, one-vote elections, but a new public opinion survey shows that concerns about political instability, security and the country’s constitutional crisis continue to shape how citizens view democratic reform.
Nearly nine in 10 respondents — 88% — said it was important for Somalia’s next president to be elected through one-person, one-vote elections, according to a report released by Somali Public Agenda and the Somali Dialogue Platform.
But when democracy was weighed against competing priorities, support became more complicated.
Eighty-two percent of respondents said maintaining peace and stability was more important than increasing citizen participation in the upcoming presidential transition. And 52% said peaceful and secure elections were more important than ensuring that the political transition moves forward on time without extending political terms.
The findings come as Somalia faces a contentious political debate over constitutional changes, elections, presidential authority and the relationship between the federal government and Federal Member States.
The survey was conducted between May 30 and June 15 among 928 respondents in Mogadishu and the capitals of five Federal Member States: Garowe, Kismayo, Baidoa, Dhusamareb and Jowhar.
Mandate dispute divides public opinion
One of the clearest divisions in the survey concerns the mandate of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Overall, 59% of respondents said they believed the Federal Government’s presidential term had already ended, while views varied considerably by location.
The proportion was particularly high in Garowe and Kismayo, where Puntland and Jubaland have been prominent critics of the federal government’s approach to the political transition.
In Mogadishu and Dhusamareb, fewer than half of respondents said the presidential term had ended.
The researchers found that perceptions of the presidential mandate were among the strongest predictors of respondents’ democratic preferences.
Those who believed the mandate had expired were more likely to prioritize term limits, political transition and press freedom. Those who believed the mandate continued were more likely to emphasize stability and government authority.
The report cautions that these responses may reflect broader political alignments surrounding Somalia’s constitutional dispute rather than simply respondents’ understanding of the law.
Strong support for elections, but stability comes first
The survey reveals a recurring tension between Somalia’s democratic ambitions and concerns about security.
Respondents overwhelmingly support elections in principle, but many are reluctant to place electoral objectives above stability.
In one of the survey’s trade-offs, 73% favored maintaining peace and stability even if that meant restricting press freedom, while only 28% prioritized freedom of the press even if it caused tensions.
Similarly, 65% preferred holding one-person, one-vote elections even if they had to be delayed for preparations, while 35% favored upholding term limits but holding elections without one-person, one-vote voting.
The findings suggest that democratic reform remains popular, but citizens do not necessarily see all democratic principles as equally urgent.
Security dominates demand for transparency
When asked what political leaders should communicate about more openly, security was by far the most common answer.
About 65.5% identified security and counterterrorism operations as their top priority.
Elections and political processes came a distant second at 18.9%, while public spending and budgeting was selected by 10.6%.
Security was the leading concern across all six locations surveyed, reaching almost 80% in Dhusamareb.
The results suggest that for many Somalis, political accountability remains closely connected to the government’s ability to provide security.
Citizens want transparency but have reservations about press freedom
The survey found another striking contradiction.
While 62% of respondents preferred government decisions and election processes to be communicated openly and transparently, support for press freedom was considerably weaker.
A majority said protecting the dignity of government leaders was more important than maintaining press freedom when journalists’ reporting could be considered insulting.
The researchers said this may indicate that citizens distinguish between government transparency and an independent media.
In Somalia’s information environment, political information also travels through government channels, community networks, religious leaders and other informal sources.
Trust in election managers varies across Somalia
Public confidence in who should manage elections also differed sharply by location.
In Dhusamareb, respondents expressed greater confidence in the Federal Government than in their own state authorities to manage fair elections.
In Garowe and Kismayo, the opposite was true, with respondents showing greater confidence in their respective local governments.
In Mogadishu, Baidoa and Jowhar, there was no statistically significant difference between confidence in federal and local authorities.
The findings underscore the political challenge of establishing an electoral system that commands confidence across Somalia’s diverse political landscape.
Civil society seen as key to electoral legitimacy
Somali civil society organizations emerged as the most trusted third-party actor for strengthening confidence in elections.
Some 68.4% of respondents said the involvement of Somali civil society would increase their confidence in the legitimacy of an election.
That compared with 62.8% for the United Nations, 56.1% for Türkiye, 55.4% for the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and 54.4% for the African Union.
The results suggest that international involvement can bolster confidence, but trusted Somali institutions may have an even more important role in persuading citizens that elections are credible.
Women more likely to prioritize stability
Women surveyed were consistently more likely than men to prioritize peace and stability when asked to choose between competing political objectives.
The researchers said the finding should not necessarily be interpreted as weaker support for democracy among women. Instead, it could reflect different assessments of the risks associated with political instability or doubts about whether electoral reforms would translate into greater political influence.
Respondents who were more politically engaged were also somewhat more willing to prioritize democratic objectives over stability.
Somalia’s difficult political balancing act
The survey presents a complicated picture of Somalia’s democratic transition.
Citizens broadly support elections, government transparency and merit-based leadership. But they also remain deeply concerned about security and political instability, and many are willing to sacrifice some democratic freedoms when they believe those principles could threaten peace.
The findings come at a particularly sensitive moment for Somalia, where disagreements over constitutional changes, electoral arrangements and the presidential mandate have widened political divisions between Mogadishu, some Federal Member States and opposition groups.
The report argues that future political dialogue will need to address more than the mechanics of elections.
For Somalia’s democratic transition to gain broad legitimacy, political leaders will need to convince citizens that democratic reform can deliver greater accountability without undermining security and stability.
The study also carries an important limitation: it represents public opinion in six urban centers and should not be treated as nationally representative of Somalia’s rural populations or communities outside the surveyed locations.
Still, its findings provide a rare window into how citizens themselves view a political transition that has largely been negotiated among elites — and show just how difficult it may be to reconcile Somalia’s demand for democratic legitimacy with its enduring fear of political instability.
