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Uncertainty Grows as Somalia and Ethiopia Jockey for Influence in Border Town

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MOGADISHU, Somalia – Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, two key players in the Horn of Africa, are once again facing uncertainty amid developments in the contested border town of Beled Hawo of Gedo region, Arlaadi Media Network (AMN) reports.

Last week, Somalia’s federal government took control of Beled Hawo through the appointment of Abdirashid Janan, a move that has drawn sharp reactions from Ethiopian military officials.

According to multiple sources, an Ethiopian general was dispatched to the area to meet with Jubaland regional leaders and local clan elders, delivering a stark message: Janan and his forces must withdraw.

When local elders pressed for reasons behind this demand, the Ethiopian officer reportedly cited Ethiopia’s deep security cooperation with Jubaland forces, underscoring Ethiopia’s intent to maintain influence over the region through its regional allies rather than Somalia’s federal government.

The situation is further complicated by unverified reports suggesting the possible deployment of Egyptian troops to southern Somalia, authorized by the African Union. This potential development has reportedly raised alarm in Addis Ababa, adding a new layer to an already complex geopolitical puzzle.

Meanwhile, Ethiopian support for the mayor of Doolow — a key border town opposed to Mogadishu — has led to the disbandment of a federal government military unit stationed there.

This incident unfolded while Somalia’s president was in Addis Ababa, highlighting the delicate and shifting power dynamics along the border.

If Ethiopian and Jubaland forces succeed in pushing back the Somali federal government from Beled Hawo, it could severely damage the fragile reconciliation between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, which had begun to recover after last year’s tensions linked to Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, Somalia’s federal government criticised Jubaland’s deputy leader, Mohamud Sayid Aden, accusing him of stoking regional tensions. The statement notably avoided mentioning the Ethiopian military’s role in recent border engagements, perhaps reflecting a cautious approach to managing bilateral relations.

As the Horn of Africa grapples with overlapping security challenges and political rivalries, the unfolding situation in Beled Hawo serves as a reminder of the precarious balance of power in the region — and the high stakes involved in maintaining peace and cooperation.

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