MOGADISHU, Somalia — Nearly 874,000 people could be forced from their homes in Somalia between October and December as heavy rainfall and rising river levels threaten communities already grappling with drought and repeated displacement, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has warned.
Projections by the IOM and the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) estimate that 874,319 people could be displaced over the three-month period, with flooding accounting for 92% of the projected displacement.
The warning comes as Somalia enters a rainy season expected to bring above-normal rainfall amid strengthening El Niño conditions, raising concerns about a worsening humanitarian crisis.
“We are looking at the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes in just a matter of weeks,” said Manuel Marques Pereira, IOM Somalia’s chief of mission. He warned that many affected families had already been displaced and had few resources left to cope with another emergency.
“There is still time to reduce the impact, but that window is closing,” he said, calling for urgent funding to help communities protect their homes and livelihoods and relocate to safer areas where necessary.
The IOM said it had secured only about 14.4% of the $16.62 million required to prepare for and respond to El Niño-related flooding. The funding is intended to support more than 517,000 people living in flood-prone areas across Somalia.
Rivers rise as communities face growing risks
Signs of flooding are already emerging in several parts of the country. In Dollow, water levels in the Jubba River are approaching flood levels, while the Shabelle River is rising towards the top of its banks in Jowhar.
Heavy rainfall in Baidoa has already damaged homes and forced families to flee several neighbourhoods, according to the IOM.
Beletweyne and Gaalkacyo are among the areas facing the greatest risk, with approximately 229,000 and 82,000 people respectively potentially at risk of displacement.
Families living in overcrowded displacement sites are particularly vulnerable. Assessments have identified inadequate access to safe drinking water and sanitation, raising concerns about possible disease outbreaks if floodwaters spread.
Flooding could also destroy crops, disrupt livelihoods, contaminate water supplies and cut off access to healthcare and other essential services, adding to the needs of communities already affected by successive climate shocks.
Funding shortfall threatens emergency preparations
The IOM is working with Somali authorities and local communities to strengthen early warning systems, identify safer evacuation routes and prepare emergency assistance ahead of potential flooding.
However, funding shortages are limiting preparations, including efforts to establish safe relocation areas and provide emergency shelter, clean water, sanitation and healthcare.
Somalia has repeatedly faced overlapping climate emergencies, with droughts and floods disrupting livelihoods, damaging infrastructure and forcing families to leave their homes. Many displaced people are already living in precarious conditions, making them particularly exposed to further disasters.
The IOM has called on international partners to urgently increase financial support, warning that early action could help reduce displacement and protect vulnerable communities before floodwaters rise further.
